Home prices in the Greater Montreal area are expected to increase 17.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 , “the highest in Canada among forecasted regions” compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, says the Royal LePage House Price Survey.
The survey “provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets.”
For Canada as a whole, says the survey, “the aggregate price of a home increased 25.3 per cent year-over-year to $727,000 in the second quarter of 2021, as inventory shortages continue across the country.
“Eighty-nine per cent of the regions surveyed saw year-over-year double-digit aggregate price gains, driven largely by increases in the single-family detached property segment. However, the level of competition seen in recent months is beginning to slow.”
The real estate company is also predicting that for Canada, “the aggregate price of a home will increase 16 per cent to $771,500 in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year.“While the rate of price appreciation is decelerating, a boost in demand is expected in the fall from foreign students, newcomers and investors as pandemic-era restrictions are lifted and the effects of the global health crisis wane....With COVID-19 cases on the decline and rates of full immunization rapidly rising, a return to pre-pandemic life seems imminent. This will mean a boost in immigration, the return of jobs in the hospitality and tourism industries, and the return of foreign students. For the Greater Montreal Area, the survey points out that the “aggregate price of a home increased 21.7 per cent year-over-year to $514,000 in the second quarter of 2021.
“Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 25.5 per cent to $559,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 14.1 per cent to $405,000 during the same period.
“We’re still seeing extremely high home price appreciation rates this quarter, but we believe the peak of home price increases should be behind us,” stated Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager of Royal LePage for Quebec. “The vaccination rate in the province is on track, which allows people to look beyond their life at home and focus on travelling and enjoying activities with family and friends. Also, many potential first-time home buyers postponed their purchase, hoping to face less competition in the next six to 12 months.”
For the area known as Montreal Centre, “the aggregate price of a home increased 14.3 per cent year-over-year to $643,000 in the second quarter of 2021. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 24.3 per cent to $1,050,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 9.3 per cent to $500,500.”
“Real estate, like many other economic drivers, is cyclical,” stated St-Pierre. “This record home price appreciation period was spurred by an unprecedented health crisis. The return to more moderate appreciation rates will occur naturally as the economy regains balance and people develop post-pandemic consumer habits.”
Royal LePage is predicting that the “aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 17.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year, the highest of all forecasted regions in the country. The previous forecast, released in April, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the current state of the market.
“The second half of the year should post a more moderate growth than what we have seen in the first half of 2021,” concluded St-Pierre.