Trying to forecast the provincial election

By Mike Cohen, August 22nd, 2012

It is less than two weeks before the much anticipated provincial election. While the Parti Québécois has been leading in the polls, who knows what will happen at the ballot box on Sept. 4? Here are some predictions, peppered with a few tongue-in-cheek notes.
The Quebec Liberals win a majority government: Premier Jean Charest wins a fourth consecutive mandate as premier, shocking the pollsters by taking 65 seats in the National Assembly, compared to 42 for the Parti Quèbecois, 16 for the Coalition Avenir Québec and two for Québec solidaire. PQ leader Pauline Marois resigns immediately. Charest loses his Sherbrooke riding to challenger Serge Cardin, prompting Westmount-Saint-Louis Liberal MNA Jacques Chagnon to offer up his seat. “Well I have been living in Westmount since 1998,” said Charest. “I probably should have run here all along.” Chagnon is quickly named as head of Loto Québec.
The Quebec Liberals win a minority government: Charest wins a fourth consecutive mandate, but fails to capture his Sherbrooke riding. Chagnon agrees to step down in Westmount Saint-Louis for him to run. The Liberals win 51 seats, the PQ 48, the CAQ 24 and QS two. Marois decides to remain as leader, insisting that another election will occur in 18 months time. That is when Charest pulls a rabbit out of his hat, announcing that he and François Legault will form a coalition government. Legault is named deputy premier and in a touching ceremony Jacques Duchesneau gives Charest a big hug as he is sworn in as anti-corruption minister.
The PQ wins a majority government:  The PQ wins 66 seats, compared to 30 for the Liberals, 28 for the CAQ and one for QS. Marois becomes Quebec's first ever female premier. In her acceptance speech she promises a referendum 90 days after the launch of a province-wide contest to see which citizen can come up with the most confusing question possible.  Charest loses his Sherbooke riding and announces that he is leaving politics for good. Outremont MNA Raymond Bachand is named interim leader.  Prime Minister Stephen Harper immediately names Charest Quebec's ambassador to France. Legault loses in his own riding of L'Assomption.  Jacques Duchesneau announces that he will become the leader, until Legault steps in and says he will run in Duchesneau's St. Jerome seat in a by-election. “That is very corrupt,” Duchesneau tells him.
The PQ wins a minority government: Marois becomes Quebec's first ever female premier, but is unable to deliver on a sovereignty referendum. “This is a dream come true,” she is caught saying while thinking some TV cameras were turned off. “I am not really a separatist. I never was. Now I have the perfect excuse not to give into those hardliners.” The PQ wins 51 seats, compared to 38 for the Liberals, 34 for the CAQ and two for QS. Charest loses his Sherbrooke riding and retires. Pierre Moreau steps up as interim leader.
The CAQ wins a majority government: Similar to the Federal NDP, the CAQ shocks everyone and takes 65 seats, compared to 40 for the Liberals, 20 for the PQ and zero for QS. Robert Libman joins the CAQ as a special advisor on anglo affairs. Both Charest and Marois resign. Amir Khadir gets a job as a shoe salesman on St. Denis Street.
The CAQ wins a minority government: Legault's party wins 45 seats compared to 43 for the PQ, 35 for the Liberals and two for QS. Charest loses his Sherbrooke seat, resigns and interim Liberal leader Jean-Marc Fournier announces that his party will support the CAQ in a loose coalition. Marois resigns as well, replaced on an interim basis by Bernard Drainville.
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